Short Analysis
Every stock has a price. Not every stock deserves it.
We approach from a neutral standpoint or even positive, and build from the ground up a savage and ruthless Short Analysis. This is a conviction-grade short thesis built on forensic fundamental analysis. It identifies companies where the gap between narrative and reality has become unsustainable — and where catalysts exist to close it.
We build one for every company we cover. Even the ones we love. Especially the ones we love. Because if the thesis can survive its own destruction, it deserves conviction. If it can’t, we want to know first.
At Kadima Sun, we isolate the structural vulnerabilities that bull cases depend on but rarely stress-test: deteriorating unit economics, governance misalignment, unsustainable capital structures, and narratives that have outrun execution. We then identify the specific catalysts most likely to force a repricing.
Each thesis is built across a defined framework:
Bull Narrative ← Pressure Points → Repricing Catalysts
We define:
• The assumptions the current valuation requires to be true
• The fundamental evidence that challenges those assumptions
• The catalysts — earnings, regulatory, competitive, or structural — most likely to break consensus
We combine deep fundamental research with AI-enabled monitoring to track deterioration in real time and calibrate conviction as conditions evolve.
This analysis is used to:
• Build and manage high-conviction short positions with institutional discipline
• Provide hedge funds and active managers with differentiated, non-consensus research
• Identify inflection points where sentiment and fundamentals are on a collision course
• Stress-test long positions by forcing the best bull cases to defend themselves
Outcome: A rigorous, catalyst-driven short thesis designed to generate returns when the market stops believing the story — and starts reading the numbers.
